The World Bank projects that yields for olives, which accounted for 40 percent of total agricultural exports in 2019, could drop by as much as 69 percent by 2050.
“Agricultural production is expected to drop by between 29.1 percent and 33.1 percent relative to projections under a scenario of no climatic stress,” reads a WB Fall 2023 Economic Monitor of Tunisia published Monday.
“This will have disproportionate impacts on the rural poor who have less resources to cope with climate impacts. These losses would translate into a reduction in real GDP by between 4.1 and 4.6 percent,” reads the report published under the title ”Migration amid a Challenging Economic Context.”
“A large portion of these losses could materialise by 2030, when the economy is predicted to be between 2.0 and 2.7 smaller than it would otherwise be without the dry conditions induced by climate change. This is the equivalent between TD 2.7 billion and TD 3.8 billion (US$0.9 billion and US$1.3 billion) per year.